Our forecast results are also available through an interactive web application, which enables users to filter forecast results by occupations, skills, geography, and demographic characteristics. 

Web App

The Employment in 2030 project used a unique mixed method approach that leverages foresight research, survey responses and insights from 121 experts in cross-country workshops, and a machine learning model, to develop an occupations and skills forecast for Canada. 

It builds on an approach pioneered by Nesta in the United Kingdom and the United States as part of their Future of Skills project. BII+E worked with Nesta to extend their approach, with adjustments based on lessons learned from its original application, and to account for the unique characteristics of Canada’s labour market.

The project consisted of three phases:

Phase 1: Trends research

• Research on the trends impacting the Canadian labour market over the next decade, which involved horizon scanning, a strategic foresight method that helped to identify signals of change gathered from academic journals, popular media, and fringe sources. Surveying over 600 sources, the scanning process identified 31 meso trends with varying levels of maturity. This research took place in the fall of 2018, and is described in the first Employment in 2030 report, Turn and Face the Strange: Changes Impacting the Future of Employment in Canada. 

Phase 2: Workshops

• Turn and Face the Strange provided context for the second phase of the project: six workshops held across Canada, inviting a range of diverse labour market experts to share how they expect select occupations might change in the next 10–15 years. Collected through an occupation-specific survey, this data was used to inform the final forecast.

• The workshop was created using human-centred design principles that encouraged collaboration between all participants through group discussion, gameplay, and critical thinking. The summary of these workshops and the qualitative insights gathered from them are captured in the second report in the series, Signs of the Times: Expert insights about employment in 2030. It delves into how experts expect jobs might change in the future, how changes may vary by region, and which trends are likely responsible for driving these transitions. 

Phase 3: Forecast and accompanying report

• The occupational projection data provided by experts at the workshops was used to train a random forest machine learning model. The model was built to create a forecast driven by the underlying skills, abilities, and knowledge important to each occupation. This algorithm allowed us to extrapolate from expert data collected at the workshops to project what experts would have said about all occupations across the Canadian labour market. 
• The forecast and accompanying report summarize the results of this project, highlighting the occupations that are projected to grow or decline by 2030. Importantly, Ahead by a Decade also explores the foundational and complementary skills essential for building a resilient workforce, as well as the distribution of occupational changes across Canadian geographies and demographic groups. Based on these insights, it suggests areas for action to help focus the country’s skills-development efforts and support the development of a more inclusive labour market.

This project is made possible in part thanks to funding from the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiative Program and the Max Bell Foundation.

This work was carried out in partnership with Nesta, and with the support of Element AI and of local convening partners, including Canada West Foundation, SFU Public Square, the Newfoundland and Labrador Workforce Innovation Centre (NLWIC) at CNA, Percolab, and Yukon College.